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利用开源预测数据优化光伏电站维护停机调度可降低发电损失
Using Open-Source Forecasts for Solar Plant Maintenance Outage Scheduling Can Reduce Lost Energy
| 作者 | William B. Hobbs · Drumil Joshi |
| 期刊 | IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics |
| 出版日期 | 2026年1月 |
| 卷/期 | 第 16 卷 第 2 期 |
| 技术分类 | 智能化与AI应用 |
| 技术标签 | 机器学习 模型预测控制MPC 光伏逆变器 智能运维 |
| 相关度评分 | ★★★★ 4.0 / 5.0 |
| 关键词 |
语言:
中文摘要
本文提出基于开源气象与发电预测数据的维护停机调度方法,通过提前1天以上优化停机时段,显著减少因维护导致的发电损失;相比无预测调度,损失降低超50%,并提供开源参考代码。
English Abstract
Solar plant operators have to schedule outages for periodic maintenance, where plants or subsets of plants are shut down. Outages can last many hours to several days and result in lost energy generation. Scheduling outages one or more days in advance may be required for staffing purposes and to provide adequate notification to grid operators. Because solar generation can vary from one day to the next, it is ideal for outage scheduling to be informed by the weather, with resulting generation that will or could occur on each day being considered for an outage. In this work, we demonstrate how forecasts made with open-source data and tools can improve maintenance outage scheduling relative to not using forecasts, reducing losses relative to perfect scheduling by more than half. Reference code to replicate this work, which is freely available, is also introduced.
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SunView 深度解读
该研究与阳光电源iSolarCloud智能运维平台高度契合,可增强其功率预测+AI调度模块在组串式逆变器及地面光伏电站场景中的应用价值。建议将开源预测模型集成至iSolarCloud,结合ST系列PCS和PowerTitan储能系统实现‘预测-调度-补偿’闭环,提升客户运维经济性;亦可为户用及工商业光伏提供差异化SaaS运维服务。