基于加速湿热老化试验的TOPCon组件寿命预测

Tunnel oxide passivation contacts (TOPCon) solar cells have revealed a high-performance efficiency and become mainstream product in global photovoltaic (PV) market. Nevertheless, there are still concerns about the reliability and durability of TOPCon modules, particularly in damp and heat conditions. Current lifetime prediction models for TOPCon modules lack adaptability to complex environmental stressors and rapid degradation feedback, limiting their utility in guiding material selection and process optimization. To address this gap, we developed a robust accelerated aging model by combining an improved Peck model with a sigmoidal degradation function, which explicitly incorporates critical factors such as internal humidity and temperature within the module. The model incorporates a particle swarm optimization algorithm to calibrate activation energy and humidity sensitivity parameters, enabling precise simulation of degradation trajectories. Validated through a “fitting + testing” framework, the model demonstrates high accuracy (RMSE = 0.7%) in predicting power degradation under damp heat, highly accelerated stress test, and modified pressure cooker test conditions. The results of our designed accelerated aging tests reveal that DH-induced degradation primarily reduces fill factor due to finger corrosion, with minimal impact on Voc and Isc. Modules encapsulated with polyolefin elastomer exhibit superior corrosion resistance, achieving a projected service lifetime 23 years longer than EVA/EVA encapsulated in high-humidity regions like Hainan, China. This article bridges the critical gap in TOPCon module lifetime prediction under extreme environments and provides actionable insights for optimizing encapsulation materials and enhancing long-term reliability. The proposed model offers a scalable framework for industry stakeholders to evaluate module performance under site-specific climatic conditions, accelerating the development of durable PV technologies.